Game 3 is a MUST win for the Colorado Rockies..

Which should be a given, that they are already down 2-0. However, the one big 'life saver' on Colorado's side is its magical naive streak that has brought them to this point. If being in Colorado's environment can some how resurrect the team's play and give them a shot in the arm, then it could be a whole new ball game. Additionally Matsuzaka is probably the Red Sox's one wild card weak link in their starting rotation, Colorado NEEDS to break through on him, otherwise Red Sox nation will be celebrating early.

If I were a betting man..

I would HAVE to put my money on the Red Soxs to take it all and win the 2007 World Series. The other 3 teams are just too young and don't have enough. Colorado and Arizona are totally on borrowed time. It would not surprise me one bit if the NL got swept this year or only manages to win 1 game in the World Series. And as for Cleveland, my views:
- if Wang had 3 more years under he's belt, he wouldn't have been off his game plan and over thrown like he did
- if it weren’t for those stupid bugs, Joba would have been LIGHTS out in game 2
- if Torre had gotten OFF his ass and recognized that Joba was not ready for a on the road, game 2, crazy bugs moment and put in Riveria
- if the umpires had the rationalization of a normal human and paused the game

It would be 2-2 and going to game 5. And everyone on Cleveland had to play very key roles just to have it at 2-2. Sabathia and Carmona have been great and those games should be very well pitched, but Boston can very easily match and have Matsuzaka and Wakefield following up game 3 and 4. Sure, Dice-k is a wild card but Cleveland counters with Westbrook who has no chance of pitching a gem.

A quick cheat sheet of favorable wagers:
Game 1 under
Game 2 under
Game 3 over / Boston wins
Game 3 over / Boston wins

Bad Opening Day

Ouch! My squad was 7 for 45 with no homerruns and no stolen bases. A collective 6.88 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. Curt Schilling's shortest outing in 10 years and personally admitting in his online blog, that he had command issues.
Just another day in fantasy sports. Sure I would have loved to have a great opening day to kick start the season, but its a long long marathon. Me and everyone else who had bad opening days, need to keep everything in perspective and realize this was just a blimp on the radar.

Good or bad, yesterday or even this whole week, players will go hot and cold. Keep your eye on the prize and it's time to go start looking at stats and enjoying baseball!

My Fantasy Team

A little back ground information first. I am in the 2nd year of a 3 year ESPN keepers league. 12 teams, 5 x 5 and we keep 5 players from the previous year (I kept Pujols, Soriano, Dye, Webb and Smoltz). I feel VERY optimistic about my team, I got a lot of the players I wanted going into my draft and it should be a great season. As much as I'm optimistic, you just never know. It's never the time to rest on your ability to improve the team. Reflect and enjoy the site of your roster AFTER you've won. Below is a quick personal critique of my lineup:

(note: All references to Draft Round includes the first 5 rounds reserved for our 5 keeper picks.)

C Ivan Rodriguez-(drafted round 15, last C left I thought could do 70 runs,70 rbis)
1B Albert Pujols-(knock on wood, hopes everything goes well)
2B Orlando Hudson-(after 5 years of mlb exp., really starting to come into his own)
3B Alex Gordon-(see my blog for 'Potential Game Breaker Rookies')
SS Bobby Crosby-(sigh, I'm going to need SS)
OF Alfonso Soriano-(will steal less this year, but in a great lineup)
OF Jermaine Dye-(hold up on me please father time, but playing for one more payday)
OF Gary Sheffield-(Shef strikes me as a vengeful guy)
OF Nick Markakis-(hopefully he stays on the right uptrend track)
OF Jose Guillen-(drafted round 25, I think I got great value here)
2B/SS Jose Vidro-(probably the worst hitter in mlb hitting 3rd, but I'll take it)
1B/3B Melvin Mora-(going to need a corner hitter too)
UTIL Milton Bradley-(if Bradley can keep it together and put it together, 25hrs/25sbs)

P Francisco Cordero-(lets hope he doesn't start off like last year)
P Tom Gordon-(not the top notch closers I wanted, but I couldn't pass up some guys at my draft spots)
P Bob Wickman-(one more season.. please)
P Brandon Webb-(lets build on last year!)
P Curt Schilling-(playing for a contract, but I don't think he needs that motivation)
P John Smoltz-(going through some personal issues, will use the field as his focus)
P Rich Harden-(if he stays healthy, going to give Johan a run for his money)
P Daisuke Matsuzaka-(got enough horses, that a Dic-k flop wouldn't hurt that much)
P Adam Wainwright-(love his stuff, hope he can make the transition to season long starter)

Bench Dave Roberts-(love him in a lineup with Barry Bonds)
Bench Troy Tulowitzki-(come on colorado air!)
Bench Sammy Sosa-(each drop if he sucks, but I think he's too prideful to have come back if he really couldn't do it any more)

All and all, I really do like my team. Alot of hitters I like, great staff. Alittle weak in the infield and closer situations but I'll manage and keep my eyes open for help (hint hint to everyone out there). LETS HAVE A GREAT 2007!

Decide For Yourself

Whatever magazine you buy or wherever fantasy source you go to, everyone that plays the game today has a collection of tools to help them make better fantasy baseball decisions. Through out these magazines, you'll probably find a correlation of the top players, Pujols, Santana, Arod, etc, and they'll probably all tell you, 'yeah these guys will produce for you'. But the fact is, even though they will all produce at an above average level, relative to THIS group, there will still be winners and losers. Don't be so quick to assume that because everyone says Ryan Howard is going to hit 50 bombs that he will. Don't be afraid to draft or pay for someone that goes against the grain. Pay attention to all the information you can get your hands on and add up your own formula. Be your own fantasy source.

Below is a list of 'studs', their statistical projections going into 2006 and their actual performance. Only Albert Pujols and David Ortiz was able to exceed their projected numbers. Everyone else barely met their expectations or fell below it.


Albert Pujols
projected:
ABS:590 RUNS:135 HRS:43 RBIS:122
actual:
ABS:535 RUNS:119 HRS:49 RBIS:137

Alex Rodriguez
projected:
ABS:605 RUNS:121 HRS:44 RBIS:119
actual:
ABS:572 RUNS:113 HRS:35 RBIS:121

Vladimir Guerrero
projected:
ABS:555 RUNS:106 HRS:35 RBIS:115
actual:
ABS:607 RUNS:92 HRS:33 RBIS:116

Bobby Abreu
projected:
ABS:585 RUNS:108 HRS:28 RBIS:103
actual:
ABS:548 RUNS:98 HRS:15 RBIS:107

Jason Bay
projected:
ABS:560 RUNS:98 HRS:33 RBIS:104
actual:
ABS:570 RUNS:101 HRS:35 RBIS:109

David Wright
projected:
ABS:560 RUNS:97 HRS:30 RBIS:103
actual:
ABS:582 RUNS:96 HRS:26 RBIS:116

David Ortiz
projected:
ABS:590 RUNS:108 HRS:44 RBIS:148
actual:
ABS:558 RUNS:115 HRS:54 RBIS:137

Manny Ramirez
projected:
ABS:555 RUNS:111 HRS:43 RBIS:131
actual:
ABS:449 RUNS:79 HRS:35 RBIS:102

Miguel Cabrera
projected:
ABS:615 RUNS:102 HRS:36 RBIS:117
actual:
ABS:576 RUNS:112 HRS:26 RBIS:114

Todd Helton
projected:
ABS:545 RUNS:111 HRS:26 RBIS:94
actual:
ABS:546 RUNS:94 HRS:15 RBIS:81

Potential Game Breaker Rookies

2006 saw a lot of rookies play difference makers for fantasy teams; Hanley Ramirez, Jonathon Papelbon, Chris Ray among others. Some where down right game changing, Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver made huge impacts and had they played full seasons, a lot of fates would have been quite different. 2007 sees a lot of promise as well. There will be plenty of rookie names what will be flirting with hype this spring training, but my 3 favorites right off the bat have got to be (in no particular order): Alex Gordon 3B, KC; Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, BOS and Troy Tulowitzki SS, COL.

Alex Gordon
(06 Minor League Stats - .325 AVG, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 R, 22 SB in 130 Games)
Hit .339 vs lefties and .320 vs righties; .321 at home and .328 on the road; .331 with no outs, .333 with 1 out and .306 with 2 outs; .298 with no one on but got it up to .350 with men on base. Hit .300 in every month except June (.247) And I personally feel he's just going to get better. You never know with rookies, but if he doesn't hit .290 with 28 bombs, I'm going to be disappointed. You can probably grab Gordon late, because I think a lot of people are sleeping on him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Love what I am seeing so far. The way he handles himself, the way he cares about doing well. And personally I love the track record of the elite pitchers from Japan with some nasty stuff. The wild card, is how he will adjust to America and the spotlight. It's possible that he might try too hard and over pitch. I would prefer if he was pitching in Kansas City, but pitching in Boston has its benefits (a winning lineup behind him). Daisuke IS GOING to strike out one an inning if not more. Go get him.

Troy Tulowitzki
(06 Minor League Stats - .291 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 75 R, 6 SB in 104 Games)
I don't really think Troys a superstar hitter, but I'd most definitely give a starting Colorado rookie a shot. If he can make the transition to even just an above average hitter, he can make some noise. Think Clint Barmes 2005 before he got hurt. Just cash in before there are any expectations of him, think Clint Barmes 2006.

Getting Out Some Personal Frustration

I got 2 words... you know what, I got 3 words..

Carl @$%*#%& Pavano

And I think I'm extra sensitive because of AROD. Living in new york that’s all you hear from the media, non-Yankee fans and even some Yankee fans. How much a disappointment AROD's been. 'oh he makes so much money and he stinks'.

I just wanted to air out that Alex Rodriquez does not stink. His worst season is still probably good enough to land some other player a 100 million contract. Sure I'm losing faith in Alex because of his post season struggles, but he’s human and I can isolate his failures to rough about 40 to 50 post season at bats. He should still be money in the bank this year as your top 5 overall pick. The topic of AROD can probably go pretty long, but the issue at hand is Carl Pavano.

Not only did this guy take a 2 year break, he stinks this spring. Pavano has given up 18 hits and walked seven in 12 1/3 innings this spring. Oh my goodness, people need to start booing, ripping and putting a lot more blame on Carl Pavano's lap then what he's currently getting. The guys a bum, a contract player and is everything that’s wrong in sports.

Pavano has been paid $170,000 per inning, or about 4.3 million dollars per win through his contract with the Yankees.

So next time you bad mouth AROD (a first ballot hall of famer) give Carl some of that action for me. Oh yeah, don't waste too many auction dollars on him, 1 to 1 odds hes getting hurt at some point.