Understand How To Seperate Yourself From The Rest Of The Pack

I've always been disappointed with the lack of risk fantasy publications take when projecting numbers for the upcoming year. While you can certainly understand the position they have to take, it makes a lot of the information indifferent. At the same time, I would absolutely agree that to be able to successfully project such numbers for the entire baseball universe would fall under the category of impossible. I do believe this is where the separation begins between the consistent winners and the consistent losers. Granted any given period there are other factors involved, i.e. luck, random events, it's the ability to make more 'better' decisions then your opponents that will give you the best chance into the winner’s circle.

I reiterate my mom could have told you Pujols was automatic for 100-40-100. Given steady conditions, almost anyone can accurately gauge the statistics for the established players. If you took a guess at what their numbers would be at the end of the season, give or take 15 to 20 runs/rbis, 7/9 plus or minus homers, the general population would be able to hit the general range. Even if you were disappointed when drafting Mark Teixeira in 2006, who was projected to hit 40 bombs, to go with 115 runs and rbis, his actual 33 homers, 99 runs and 110 rbis still contributed to your cause. As long as you have a good general knowledge of the first 4 rounds talent value, you will be okay either way.

For those of you, whose primary focus is to win, focus your time and research on the lesser knowns. The real difference makers are the draft day steals that no one else can have because there are only a small group of guys after the top 70 or so, that can produce at a high level.

I pulled out my fantasy baseball magazine I had purchased for 2006 and below are the studs for 2006 ranked under 70. Weren’t you annoyed every time one of these players were producing well, for someone else's team.

In order of actual 2006 performance:
#088. Ron Howard
#142. Brandon Webb
#074. Matt Holiday
#193. Jermaine Dye
#136. Garrett Atkins
unrk. Bronson Arroyo
#363. Mike Mussina
#268. Aaron Harang
#289. Justin Morneau
unrk. Hanley Ramirez
#143. Francisco Lirano
#084. Vernon Wells
#207. C.C. Sabathia
#199. Jim Thome
#350. John Lackey
#158. Raul Ibanez

Justin Morneau: MVP or Mirage?

Hats off to the SOB who beat out my Yankee captain for the Most Valuable Player award. Justin Morneau hit .321 with 34 HRs and 130 RBIs in 2006, after having previously hit .248 with 45 HRs and 153 RBIs in 876 previous major league at bats. So what's the story? Did he have a breakout year or did he just have a tremendous June and July last season.

Morneau always made progressive improvements in the minors. At age 21, he hit .299 in his first season of Double A ball before improving to .329 the following season. That quickly earned him a promotion to Triple A after two months in 2003, where he hit .268 his first season and improved to .306 the year after. Good signs. He also did in fact hit 5 for 12 with 2 homers in the AL league division series (always a plus when performing when the spot light and pressure is on).

But a closer look at his 2006 campaign show, he hit .244 in April & May and only had 6 homers in August & September. This tells me he's capable of getting real hot and equally capable of getting real cold. Lets also face the reality that the Twin's offense is mediocre at best and it would be hard pressed for a mediocre offense to consistently produce a 130 RBI player.

My personal assetment is while Morneaus certainly has some room left to grow statisticly, it would appear that last season he wasn't as consistant as he could have been. There is definiete risk to owning this American League MVP, which is something you dont want to hear from your 2nd round pick. Do not over draft because of his MVP label. Let someone else draft him with their 18th pick when Paul Konerko could fall to you with your 42nd pick. The same applies with saving $5 on Kornerko in auction leagues.

Opening Day Already Began..

Officially, stats do not begin to count until April 1st, but that doesn't mean things aren’t already happening. Information is being generated every day, players are becoming more valuable through weight training and by improving various elements of their game. Conversely, players are also regressing; getting hurt and pouting about their contractual situations. This is where the potential draft day winners separate themselves from the managers that play for fun. Going into draft day, all the managers in your league will have their fantasy magazines and draft day ranking cheat sheets. The first day a fantasy magazine hits the stands, 5 to 7 percent of that information is ALREADY out of date. Some things never get updated in the first place because that information was not available at the time of publication. Unless you get extremely lucky you will be one, two or even ten steps behind that devoted league mate that has been carefully paying attention.

Having the updated information is just the first step. It's also about being able to accurately process through this information. There is so much information out there; it's enough to deter you from even bothering to keep up. Because we don’t actually play the game on the field, our game is information and how to manage it.

An awkward example (if you haven’t heard) is news broke earlier this month that John Smoltz and his wife are getting a divorce after 16 years of marriage (my heart goes out to them). But as cold hearted as it sounds, will this development have any possible fantasy ramifications toward his performance? Can he play through it or will he lose his edge and just run through the motions? The instant evaluation might be, Smoltz will go into the season less than stellar and won't be on top of his game, thus lowering his value. The media spin around the situation is that the 17 year old veteran will not be affected by his personal issues. With the weeks following the news, articles and published interviews have already been written, covering Smoltz as loose and has been clowning around in the locker room. He's been saying all the right things and positively declaring that his faith through his religion will carry him through this time period of his life. (Possibly returning his value back to where it was before the news broke.) But, here’s the caveat: there isn’t a professional athlete alive that is willing to announce to a reporter or admit to themselves even, that his performance isn't going to be up to par. The non-verbal picture has Smoltz reporting to camp noticeably thinner and he himself has acknowledge he will need to re-gain 10 more lbs to get back into playing shape. Which assumably means he’s not eating right or working out at a level he’s accustomed to.

My take on the situation is that Smoltz has always been a straight shooter and given what he’s shown through out the years, his mental make up leaves evidence that he’ll continue to be highly professional and be able to produce at a level we’re used to seeing. His career path has already brought him through pitching past 4 elbow operations, conversion from starter to closer and then back to starter, while being a major contributor for the 14 time pennant winning Atlanta Braves. (Winning is the truth to all the BS.) Aside from his rookie season, his ERA has been over 4 just once over his career and the future Hall of Famer’s value should, at worst be a steady #2 starting pitcher for your fantasy squad. I will even go out on a limb and say we can expect a special season out of Smoltz. My personal projected use case has Smoltz using baseball as his own personal nirvana and doing what matters most to an old school gamer, and that is being focused on winning baseball games. Which will correlate to positive fantasy statistical production.
However, even after this analysis, the diagnosis can change. Pay attention to Smoltz’s weight and Spring training progress. Does it look like he’s getting back to game shape? Or does he sound like he’s giving the same old motivational speech again and again. The key to the game is paying attention and process through the ever changing flow of information.

Juan Pierre (don't draft him higher than 90 and thats only if you need SBs)

Speed never goes into slumps? Don't mention that to Juan Pierre. Off the top of my head, the approximate batting average range for a fantasy team that leads their league in AVG is roughly .285 and up to .305 (for 5x5 based leagues and depending on your league dynamics). Below is a list of months Juan Pierre has hit below .270:
2006 - (April .258, May .226)
2005 - (May .226, June .262, August .248)
2004 - (June .232)
2003 - (April .266)
2002 - (June .235, August .215)

Lets process this for a moment. He averages 1 homer a year. Topped 50 RBIs once in his career. And NOW YOUR TELLING ME he hits less than .270 2-3 months out of the baseball season? Throw in the fact, word out of Dodger camp is Pierre will hit 2nd behind Rafael Furcal, drastically limiting his ability to steal 50 SB's. (Luis Castillo never stole more than 21 bases hitting 2nd behind Pierre in Florida.) Pierre is worthless for 2 months out of the year.

Last year was Pierre's walk year and I bet he was HELL bent on getting his 55+ sb's on paper before seeking his new contract for the year. After nailing his 9 million per a year deal, that little motivational speaker has now left the building.

It keeps getting better, toss him into a lower tier offensive team like the Dodgers and now his run total is suspect as well.

I've seen Pierre so far this spring drafted/ranked anywhere from 48 to 70. MISTAKE. Given all the information we know right now and unless Rafael Furcal gets hurt, I got Juan Pierre's top range at: .291, 3 HRs (accounts for generosity and flukes), 89 runs, 45 rbis and 42 steals. BUT bottoming out at .270, 1 HR, 72 runs, 32 rbis and 30 steals. He should still steal 30, but those secretly hoping for 50 or 60 will sadly be disappointed. I would not take him any higher than 90, I would much rather risk my chips on MLB level unknowns Delmon Young or Daisuke Matsuzaka. Or even go after closers in that area of the draft.

The best way to manage owning a Juan Pierre, let someone else draft him, let him go through a month slump at some point of the year and buy him on the low from a frustrated owner to pad your SB totals.

Bonus stats, hes not walking either.
Career BB's:
2006 - 32
2005 - 41
2004 - 45
2003 - 55
2002 - 31
2001 - 41
2000 - 13

2007 Contract Year Players

I really love sports and sometimes I think I expect too much from todays players. I still love to believe that those privileged enough to play sports professionally work their tail off for all the right reasons. That being a baseball player means, baseball is your PRIMARY focus. To work on being the best that you can be and to help the team WIN games. All that financial stuff will take care of itself later on. But as long as I've been following sports its ALMOST like clock work when it comes to players performing on a contract year. The following is a list of potential free-agents after the 2007 season.

1. John Smoltz (41)
2. Michael Young (31) - Rangers offered contract extension, but Young is probably preparing for a big pay day.
3. Joe Nathan (33)
4. Mariano Rivera (38)
5. Jorge Posada (36) - Hopes to play for 3 more years.
6. Curt Schilling (41) - Won't need impending free agency to perform at high level.
7. Bobby Abreu (34) - Like young, I would expect Abreu to try to squeeze out one last big pay day.
8. Ichiro Suzuki (34) - Like to believe he always plays and prepares at a high level.
9. Andruw Jones (31) - YOU KNOW IT. Shed 10 lbs in the off-season looking to break the bank.
10. Jermaine Dye (32)
11. Mike Lowell (34)
12. Jason Jennings (29)
13. Jake Westbrook (30)
14. Ivan Rodriguez (36)
15. Trevor Hoffman (40)
16. Freddy Garcia (32)
17. Kenny Rogers (43)
18. Torii Hunter (32)
19. Jason Isringhausen (35)
20. Omar Vizquel (41)
21. Marcus Giles (30)
22. Eric Byrnes (32)
23. Paul Lo Duca (36)
24. Bob Wickman (39)
25. Corey Patterson (28)
26. Adam Dunn (28)
27. Scott Linebrink (31)
28. Doug Davis (32)
29. Michael Barrett (31)
30. Milton Bradley (30)
31. Jon Lieber (38)
32. David Eckstein (33)
33. Aaron Rowand (30)
34. Juan Uribe (29)
35. Bartolo Colon (35)

Pre-Season Weight, Body and Strength Changes

A lot of fantasy players go into their draft and evaluation of a player from their previous years statistics and trends, but important changes happen to a player through their off season conditioning and improvements or lack there of. Something MOST fantasy magazines (which hits the stands in early January from production in November and December) fail to take in account for in their draft cheat sheets.

Uptrend Pitchers:
C.C. Sabathia - Decided to finally put in some work this off season and HOPEFULLY has matured at age 26 and could finally be ready for a consistant compaign.
Bobby Jenks - Ozzie claims he has a renewed confidence in the bullpen and will ease up on Jenk's work load this year, using him strictly for 1 inning save situations.
Flex Hernandez - Has all the talent necessary, if he gets his mental game right and finally decides to put in the work that’s required of a star, he should be finally ready to breakout.
Brett Myers - Shown flashes of great pitching performances, pitching for a very optimistic franchise, put his personal problems behind him?
Jeremy Bonderman - I like his progression, I like the news of him trying to improve his game and 1 of only 6 pitchers last year with 200 k's.

Downtrend Pitchers:
Barry Zito - $18 million a year?? Do not let that fool you to thinking he can be the ace of your fantasy squad. When you watch him pitch, he just doesn't look that great or dominate like he did in 2002. Change in to NL might help, but don't draft him too early.
Kerry Wood - Doesn't have a rotation spot. If he can't beat Ryan Dempster for the closers job, you don’t want to own him.
Jered Weaver - Got alot of talent and potential, but all news around him all relate to aches and problems.


Uptrend Hitters:
Lastings Milledge - Added 13 lbs of muscle and gave up red meats. Alright. Lets see what he can do in spring training.
Jonny Gomes - Apparently he's looking like Hercules with his shirt off in the spring. The jury is still out if he improved his ability to raise his batting average.
Nick Swisher - Added 20 lbs of muscle, why can't any of these guys work on hitting for average.

Downtrend Hitters:
Todd Helton - Claims to feel great, claims to have gotten over the blah blah blah that plagued him last season. Sounds like he still thinks he’s a star and people are still holding out hope because everyone loves a good come back story. Don't take him too early, risk not worth the reward.
Rickie Weeks - Already received a cortisone shot?? It's spring training, doesn't look good.
Jhonny Peralta - Gotten Lasik performed, sounds like an excuse for his sub-par season last year.