Decide For Yourself

Whatever magazine you buy or wherever fantasy source you go to, everyone that plays the game today has a collection of tools to help them make better fantasy baseball decisions. Through out these magazines, you'll probably find a correlation of the top players, Pujols, Santana, Arod, etc, and they'll probably all tell you, 'yeah these guys will produce for you'. But the fact is, even though they will all produce at an above average level, relative to THIS group, there will still be winners and losers. Don't be so quick to assume that because everyone says Ryan Howard is going to hit 50 bombs that he will. Don't be afraid to draft or pay for someone that goes against the grain. Pay attention to all the information you can get your hands on and add up your own formula. Be your own fantasy source.

Below is a list of 'studs', their statistical projections going into 2006 and their actual performance. Only Albert Pujols and David Ortiz was able to exceed their projected numbers. Everyone else barely met their expectations or fell below it.


Albert Pujols
projected:
ABS:590 RUNS:135 HRS:43 RBIS:122
actual:
ABS:535 RUNS:119 HRS:49 RBIS:137

Alex Rodriguez
projected:
ABS:605 RUNS:121 HRS:44 RBIS:119
actual:
ABS:572 RUNS:113 HRS:35 RBIS:121

Vladimir Guerrero
projected:
ABS:555 RUNS:106 HRS:35 RBIS:115
actual:
ABS:607 RUNS:92 HRS:33 RBIS:116

Bobby Abreu
projected:
ABS:585 RUNS:108 HRS:28 RBIS:103
actual:
ABS:548 RUNS:98 HRS:15 RBIS:107

Jason Bay
projected:
ABS:560 RUNS:98 HRS:33 RBIS:104
actual:
ABS:570 RUNS:101 HRS:35 RBIS:109

David Wright
projected:
ABS:560 RUNS:97 HRS:30 RBIS:103
actual:
ABS:582 RUNS:96 HRS:26 RBIS:116

David Ortiz
projected:
ABS:590 RUNS:108 HRS:44 RBIS:148
actual:
ABS:558 RUNS:115 HRS:54 RBIS:137

Manny Ramirez
projected:
ABS:555 RUNS:111 HRS:43 RBIS:131
actual:
ABS:449 RUNS:79 HRS:35 RBIS:102

Miguel Cabrera
projected:
ABS:615 RUNS:102 HRS:36 RBIS:117
actual:
ABS:576 RUNS:112 HRS:26 RBIS:114

Todd Helton
projected:
ABS:545 RUNS:111 HRS:26 RBIS:94
actual:
ABS:546 RUNS:94 HRS:15 RBIS:81

Potential Game Breaker Rookies

2006 saw a lot of rookies play difference makers for fantasy teams; Hanley Ramirez, Jonathon Papelbon, Chris Ray among others. Some where down right game changing, Francisco Liriano and Jered Weaver made huge impacts and had they played full seasons, a lot of fates would have been quite different. 2007 sees a lot of promise as well. There will be plenty of rookie names what will be flirting with hype this spring training, but my 3 favorites right off the bat have got to be (in no particular order): Alex Gordon 3B, KC; Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, BOS and Troy Tulowitzki SS, COL.

Alex Gordon
(06 Minor League Stats - .325 AVG, 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 R, 22 SB in 130 Games)
Hit .339 vs lefties and .320 vs righties; .321 at home and .328 on the road; .331 with no outs, .333 with 1 out and .306 with 2 outs; .298 with no one on but got it up to .350 with men on base. Hit .300 in every month except June (.247) And I personally feel he's just going to get better. You never know with rookies, but if he doesn't hit .290 with 28 bombs, I'm going to be disappointed. You can probably grab Gordon late, because I think a lot of people are sleeping on him.

Daisuke Matsuzaka
Love what I am seeing so far. The way he handles himself, the way he cares about doing well. And personally I love the track record of the elite pitchers from Japan with some nasty stuff. The wild card, is how he will adjust to America and the spotlight. It's possible that he might try too hard and over pitch. I would prefer if he was pitching in Kansas City, but pitching in Boston has its benefits (a winning lineup behind him). Daisuke IS GOING to strike out one an inning if not more. Go get him.

Troy Tulowitzki
(06 Minor League Stats - .291 AVG, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 75 R, 6 SB in 104 Games)
I don't really think Troys a superstar hitter, but I'd most definitely give a starting Colorado rookie a shot. If he can make the transition to even just an above average hitter, he can make some noise. Think Clint Barmes 2005 before he got hurt. Just cash in before there are any expectations of him, think Clint Barmes 2006.

Getting Out Some Personal Frustration

I got 2 words... you know what, I got 3 words..

Carl @$%*#%& Pavano

And I think I'm extra sensitive because of AROD. Living in new york that’s all you hear from the media, non-Yankee fans and even some Yankee fans. How much a disappointment AROD's been. 'oh he makes so much money and he stinks'.

I just wanted to air out that Alex Rodriquez does not stink. His worst season is still probably good enough to land some other player a 100 million contract. Sure I'm losing faith in Alex because of his post season struggles, but he’s human and I can isolate his failures to rough about 40 to 50 post season at bats. He should still be money in the bank this year as your top 5 overall pick. The topic of AROD can probably go pretty long, but the issue at hand is Carl Pavano.

Not only did this guy take a 2 year break, he stinks this spring. Pavano has given up 18 hits and walked seven in 12 1/3 innings this spring. Oh my goodness, people need to start booing, ripping and putting a lot more blame on Carl Pavano's lap then what he's currently getting. The guys a bum, a contract player and is everything that’s wrong in sports.

Pavano has been paid $170,000 per inning, or about 4.3 million dollars per win through his contract with the Yankees.

So next time you bad mouth AROD (a first ballot hall of famer) give Carl some of that action for me. Oh yeah, don't waste too many auction dollars on him, 1 to 1 odds hes getting hurt at some point.

Joe Mauer: Getting Drafted WAY TOO HIGH

I know I'm going to start coming off as a Twins hater, but I just can't believe my eyes when I'm consistantly seeing Joe drafted as early as 23 and 24. When you draft him this HIGH, you're already giving him credit for the 25 homers and 100 rbis POTENTIAL. HE'S NEVER ACTUAL DONES THAT IN A SEASON. In fact he only has 28 career bombs in over a thousand at bats! Anything less than that and you could have had Derrek Lee, Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones, and on and on for 35 homers and 100 runs & rbis. And you can BOOK those guys, barring injury to achieve those numbers.

Joe doesn't even try to hit homeruns. He's a very good contact hitter and would be perfectly happy to work the count to a base on balls.

I don't know what gives. Joe's public relation, clean cut reputation? (which means squat to my fantasy team.) His .347 avg last year? (there arn't too many players in the modern area that have repeated back to back .350 avg seasons)

The fact that this 2nd round draft pick plays catcher and will miss 20 to 30 games a year alone, washes away the position scarcity factor. On a fantasy team that has accumulated 300 homers over the course of the season, a 35 bomb guy will account for 11% of your production, while his 13 bombs last year will account for less than 5%, WHICH YOU WILL NEED to make up elsewhere.

Keep An Eye Out.. On The Gimps

Spring is in the air. Everyone's optimistic and players are saying (and I quote), 'I’m doing great' or 'that strain is no biggie', blah blah blah. Players and teams are just getting warm, getting back into the playing attitude or working on some new things. Which is why I wouldn't put too much weight on players who are successful thus far in spring training. Your focus should be the players getting/or who are hurt and constantly delaying when they will suit up. Do your home work on those players that had surgery last year or in the off season and project what their time period of recovery will be. Check in to see if their starting to play and if those injuries are still issues and lingering around. A lot of players will claim they are doing fine, but after 2 months of hitting .200 or sporting a 6.00 ERA in the regular season, they'll now sing a different tune, ‘oh I wasn’t ready yet, I thought I was’.

PEOPLE YOU CARE ABOUT (coming off surgery):
Aaron Heilman - elbow
Andy LaRoche - left shoulder
Armando Benitez - knee
Bartolo Colon - rotator cuff
Bobby Crosby - back
Brad Wilkerson - shoulder
C.C. Sabathia - knee
Carl Pavano - elbow
Carlos Delgado - right wrist and left elbow
Cliff Floyd -achillies tendon
Coco Crisp - left index finger
Dallas McPherson - back
Daniel Cabrera - LASIK
Darin Erstad - ankle
Duaner Sanchez - shoulder
Eddie Guardado - tommy john
Eric Gagne - back and elbow
Francisco Lirano - tommy john
J.J. Hardy - ankle
Jason Bay - arthroscopic knee
Jason Giambi - wrist
Jason Isringhausen - hip
Jason Kubel - right knee
Jhonny Peralta - LASIK
Jim Edmonds - toe and shoulder
Jody Gerut - right knee
John Patterson - nerve
Jonny Gomes - shoulder
Jose Guillen - tommy john
Juan Encarnacion - left wrist
Juan Rivera - leg
Mark Mulder - shoulder
Mark Teahen - right shoulder
Nick Johnson - leg
Pedro Martinez - shoulder
Randy Johnson - back
Richie Weeks - wrist
Scott Podsednik - hernia

PEOPLE THAT DID NOT OPT FOR SURGERY (but has issues):
Lew Ford
Jerad Weaver
Paul LoDuca
Mark Kotsay
Vladimir Guerrero
Kevin Mench
Kris Benson
Kerry Wood
Shawn Chacon
Chipper Jones
Ken Griffey Jr.
Joe Crede

PEOPLE YOU DONT CARE ABOUT (but I'm going to list them anyway):
Al Reyes - tommy john
Alex Cintron - elbow
Alex Escobar - shoulder
Andres Blanco - shoulder
Bobby Kielty - left mensicus
Brad Radke - shoulder (retired)
Brandon Backe - tommy john
Brandon Claussen - rotator cuff
Brian Lawrence - shoulder
Bryan Bullington - labrum
Casey Fossum - shoulder
Chin-Hui Tsao - shoulder
Chris Reitsma - ulnar
Cliff Politte - rotator cuff
Craig Dingman - bypass artery in shoulder
Cristian Guzman - LASIK and labrum (2005)
Dan Meyer - shoulder
Dave Williams - herniated disc in neck
Doug Mientkiewicz - back
Doug Waechter - shoulder
Hector Gimenez - right labrum
Jason Werth - wrist
Jeff DaVanon - left ankle and right shoulder
Jeff Nelson - shoulder
Jesse Foppert - tommy john (2003)
Joey Eischen - rotator cuff
Josh Fogg - right elbow
Juan Padilla - tommy john
Kelly Johnson - tommy john (2005)
Kent Mercker - tommy john
Kip Wells - foot
Logan Kensing - tommy john
Luis Ayala - tommy john
Mark Grudzielanek - left knee
Mark Lowe - elbow
Marlon Anderson - elbow
Matt Clement - shoulder
Mike Adams - knee
Mike DeJean - shoulder
Mike Hampton - broke up scar tissue; tommy john (2005)
Mike O'Conner - left elbow
Paul Wilson - shoulder
Pete Walker - rotator cuff
Rafael Soriano - tommy john (2005)
Ricardo Rincon - tommy john and shoulder
Rick Ankiel (the outfielder) - left knee
Roman Colon - neck
Ryan Goleski - wrist
Ryan Shealy - arthroscopic right knee
Scott Elarton - shoulder
Shawn Estes - tommy john
Taynon Sturtze - rotator cuff
Tim Worrell - shoulder (retired)
Travis Harper - shoulder
Trot Nixon - herniated disk
Tyler Walker - tommy john
Victor Zambrano - tommy john
Vince Perkins - tommy john
Yhency Brazoban - tommy john
Yorvit Torrealba - shoulder