Opening Day Already Began..

Officially, stats do not begin to count until April 1st, but that doesn't mean things aren’t already happening. Information is being generated every day, players are becoming more valuable through weight training and by improving various elements of their game. Conversely, players are also regressing; getting hurt and pouting about their contractual situations. This is where the potential draft day winners separate themselves from the managers that play for fun. Going into draft day, all the managers in your league will have their fantasy magazines and draft day ranking cheat sheets. The first day a fantasy magazine hits the stands, 5 to 7 percent of that information is ALREADY out of date. Some things never get updated in the first place because that information was not available at the time of publication. Unless you get extremely lucky you will be one, two or even ten steps behind that devoted league mate that has been carefully paying attention.

Having the updated information is just the first step. It's also about being able to accurately process through this information. There is so much information out there; it's enough to deter you from even bothering to keep up. Because we don’t actually play the game on the field, our game is information and how to manage it.

An awkward example (if you haven’t heard) is news broke earlier this month that John Smoltz and his wife are getting a divorce after 16 years of marriage (my heart goes out to them). But as cold hearted as it sounds, will this development have any possible fantasy ramifications toward his performance? Can he play through it or will he lose his edge and just run through the motions? The instant evaluation might be, Smoltz will go into the season less than stellar and won't be on top of his game, thus lowering his value. The media spin around the situation is that the 17 year old veteran will not be affected by his personal issues. With the weeks following the news, articles and published interviews have already been written, covering Smoltz as loose and has been clowning around in the locker room. He's been saying all the right things and positively declaring that his faith through his religion will carry him through this time period of his life. (Possibly returning his value back to where it was before the news broke.) But, here’s the caveat: there isn’t a professional athlete alive that is willing to announce to a reporter or admit to themselves even, that his performance isn't going to be up to par. The non-verbal picture has Smoltz reporting to camp noticeably thinner and he himself has acknowledge he will need to re-gain 10 more lbs to get back into playing shape. Which assumably means he’s not eating right or working out at a level he’s accustomed to.

My take on the situation is that Smoltz has always been a straight shooter and given what he’s shown through out the years, his mental make up leaves evidence that he’ll continue to be highly professional and be able to produce at a level we’re used to seeing. His career path has already brought him through pitching past 4 elbow operations, conversion from starter to closer and then back to starter, while being a major contributor for the 14 time pennant winning Atlanta Braves. (Winning is the truth to all the BS.) Aside from his rookie season, his ERA has been over 4 just once over his career and the future Hall of Famer’s value should, at worst be a steady #2 starting pitcher for your fantasy squad. I will even go out on a limb and say we can expect a special season out of Smoltz. My personal projected use case has Smoltz using baseball as his own personal nirvana and doing what matters most to an old school gamer, and that is being focused on winning baseball games. Which will correlate to positive fantasy statistical production.
However, even after this analysis, the diagnosis can change. Pay attention to Smoltz’s weight and Spring training progress. Does it look like he’s getting back to game shape? Or does he sound like he’s giving the same old motivational speech again and again. The key to the game is paying attention and process through the ever changing flow of information.