Justin Morneau: MVP or Mirage?

Hats off to the SOB who beat out my Yankee captain for the Most Valuable Player award. Justin Morneau hit .321 with 34 HRs and 130 RBIs in 2006, after having previously hit .248 with 45 HRs and 153 RBIs in 876 previous major league at bats. So what's the story? Did he have a breakout year or did he just have a tremendous June and July last season.

Morneau always made progressive improvements in the minors. At age 21, he hit .299 in his first season of Double A ball before improving to .329 the following season. That quickly earned him a promotion to Triple A after two months in 2003, where he hit .268 his first season and improved to .306 the year after. Good signs. He also did in fact hit 5 for 12 with 2 homers in the AL league division series (always a plus when performing when the spot light and pressure is on).

But a closer look at his 2006 campaign show, he hit .244 in April & May and only had 6 homers in August & September. This tells me he's capable of getting real hot and equally capable of getting real cold. Lets also face the reality that the Twin's offense is mediocre at best and it would be hard pressed for a mediocre offense to consistently produce a 130 RBI player.

My personal assetment is while Morneaus certainly has some room left to grow statisticly, it would appear that last season he wasn't as consistant as he could have been. There is definiete risk to owning this American League MVP, which is something you dont want to hear from your 2nd round pick. Do not over draft because of his MVP label. Let someone else draft him with their 18th pick when Paul Konerko could fall to you with your 42nd pick. The same applies with saving $5 on Kornerko in auction leagues.