Juan Pierre (don't draft him higher than 90 and thats only if you need SBs)
Speed never goes into slumps? Don't mention that to Juan Pierre. Off the top of my head, the approximate batting average range for a fantasy team that leads their league in AVG is roughly .285 and up to .305 (for 5x5 based leagues and depending on your league dynamics). Below is a list of months Juan Pierre has hit below .270:
2006 - (April .258, May .226)
2005 - (May .226, June .262, August .248)
2004 - (June .232)
2003 - (April .266)
2002 - (June .235, August .215)
Lets process this for a moment. He averages 1 homer a year. Topped 50 RBIs once in his career. And NOW YOUR TELLING ME he hits less than .270 2-3 months out of the baseball season? Throw in the fact, word out of Dodger camp is Pierre will hit 2nd behind Rafael Furcal, drastically limiting his ability to steal 50 SB's. (Luis Castillo never stole more than 21 bases hitting 2nd behind Pierre in Florida.) Pierre is worthless for 2 months out of the year.
Last year was Pierre's walk year and I bet he was HELL bent on getting his 55+ sb's on paper before seeking his new contract for the year. After nailing his 9 million per a year deal, that little motivational speaker has now left the building.
It keeps getting better, toss him into a lower tier offensive team like the Dodgers and now his run total is suspect as well.
I've seen Pierre so far this spring drafted/ranked anywhere from 48 to 70. MISTAKE. Given all the information we know right now and unless Rafael Furcal gets hurt, I got Juan Pierre's top range at: .291, 3 HRs (accounts for generosity and flukes), 89 runs, 45 rbis and 42 steals. BUT bottoming out at .270, 1 HR, 72 runs, 32 rbis and 30 steals. He should still steal 30, but those secretly hoping for 50 or 60 will sadly be disappointed. I would not take him any higher than 90, I would much rather risk my chips on MLB level unknowns Delmon Young or Daisuke Matsuzaka. Or even go after closers in that area of the draft.
The best way to manage owning a Juan Pierre, let someone else draft him, let him go through a month slump at some point of the year and buy him on the low from a frustrated owner to pad your SB totals.
Bonus stats, hes not walking either.
Career BB's:
2006 - 32
2005 - 41
2004 - 45
2003 - 55
2002 - 31
2001 - 41
2000 - 13
posted by WinningFantasyBaseball @ 7:55 AM
2 Comments
2 Comments:
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Unless you are playing in a head to head league, Juan Pierre will help your team more than hurt you. Here's why:
1. Going all the way back to 2001, he's averaged at least 650 at bats. That's almost 100 more at bats than the average fantasy hitter. As long as you hold onto him thru the cold streaks he'll help you when he gets hot.
2. Fantasy baseball, like regular baseball is a marathon, and not a sprint. Meaning, yes Pierre goes on cold streaks, but can you name someone other than Pujols who has consistent production each and every month? The guy is a career .303 hitter, which means the .276 avg in 2005 was more the anamoly, and 2006 is him getting back to his career norms.
3. You point to his mediocre walks, but ignore his miniscule strikeouts. He's only struck out more than 50 times once in his entire career, and that was in 2002. His average since then has been about 38 per season. So that means his BB/K ratio is a little more than 1. Not great for a leadoff, but not as terrible as it may seem at first glance.
4.If you're in a points league you have to be salivating over the guys double digit doubles and triples he racks up each and every year as well.
All of that being said, his batting 2nd to Furcal is definitely going to hurt his value, because he wont get nearly as many steal attempts as when he was the leadoff man. He's never hit in the two spot before in his career, so I don't know how he'll react to that situation either. I think the track record for each guy dictates that Pierre should be the leadoff guy and Furcal the number 2 guy. Furcal strikes out way more than Pierre does even if he does walk twice as much. He has a little more pop as well so he'd be able to drive in Pierre more than the other way around.
However, I think your projection of 45 rbis (tops) for Pierre is too low. He averages around 40 rbis right now as a leadoff man, so with all his extra base hits and the speedy Furcal right in front of him to drive in all the time, I think Pierre can easily get close to 60 rbis. I mean even Paul LoDuca gets 49 batting behind Reyes in NY.
So I think Pierre will hit close to 300 again this year, score 90 runs, 2 homers and 60 rbis, with 40 stolen bases...hrmm that looks like about what Dave Roberts did last year give or take a few runs...maybe you are on to something here. :)
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